Can Bitcoin (BTC) Whales Keep the Rally Alive Ahead of US Fed Rate Decision

Bullish Bitcoin holders panicked as BTC price briefly wobbled below $29,700 on Thursday. Key on-chain indicators examine if the bulls can keep the Bitcoin rally alive. 

Amid heightened interest from American asset management companies and regulatory greenlight from Ripple’s victory against the SEC, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has spent the better part of July 2023 sitting comfortably above $30,000.

Can the bulls keep the rally alive ahead of the next US Fed Interest Rate decision on July 26?

Bitcoin Whale Demand Has Hit New Heights in H2 2023

Thanks to a flurry of Bitcoin ETF applications led by big names like Blackrock, BTC whale demand has reached new heights in H2 2023. According to data from Santiment, the daily count of BTC transactions exceeding $1 million is rising. 

The chart below shows that it hit a recent low of 943 Whale Transactions ($1m) on May 22. Since then, BTC whales have consistently doubled that figure in June and July 2023.

On June 29, it hit a 2023 peak of 2,983 Whale Transactions. More recently, it closed on July 18 with 2,571 whale transactions, which is 172% higher than the recent low on May 22. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Alive | Whale Transaction Count ($1m), July 2023
Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Alive | Whale Transaction Count ($1m), July 2023. Source: Santiment

Whale Transaction Count ($1m) aggregates the daily number of Bitcoin transactions exceeding $1m. This helps to track the trading activity of large institutional investors and high-net-worth holders. 

A significant rise in whale transactions over an extended period is generally interpreted as a bullish signal for a few reasons. Firstly, institutional investors are known to hold their investments for longer periods.

Also, the whales’ liquidity allows other retail investors to execute high-volume trades without significantly nuking the price. Hence, the rising whale demand suggests that the bulls will likely keep the Bitcoin rally alive over the coming weeks. 

Dwindling Exchange Supply Suggests BTC Rally is Still Alive

Furthermore, the dwindling exchange supply is another critical on-chain indicator that suggests an early BTC price rebound. According to blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin deposited on exchanges has reduced considerably this week. 

On July 13, the Exchange Reserve balance was 2.09 million BTC. That balance has now dropped by 10,000 BTC as of July 21. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Alive | Exchange Reserve, July 2023
Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Alive | Exchange Reserve, July 2023. Source: Cryptoquant

Cryptoquant’s Exchange Reserves data evaluates changes in market sentiment by tracking the number of BTC deposited across recognized crypto exchanges. It is a bullish signal when it drops, indicating that more investors are looking to HODL rather than seeking short-term trading opportunities. 

If Exchange Reserves drop further, the ensuing market shortage could propel Bitcoin into an early rebound above the $30,000 mark

In summary, this rising whale demand and falling Exchange Reserves are crucial pointers that the bulls can keep the BTC rally alive. 

BTC Price Prediction: $32,000 Remains a Viable Target 

Considering the bullish on-chain indicators identified above, BTC looks set to reach $32,000 in the next price rally. However, the $30,740 resistance stands firmly before that target.

As seen below, 3.18 million wallet addresses had purchased 1.43 million BTC at the maximum price of $30,740. If they chose to sell when they break even, BTC could retrace below $30,000 once again. 

But if the bullish momentum strengthens, it could form a larger accumulation zone and propel Bitcoin to the $32,000 target. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction | IOMAP data, July 2023.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction | IOMAP data, July 2023. Source: IntoTheBlock

Still, if the market anticipates a negative US Fed Rate decision, the bears could force a $27,000 retest. However, the 803,000 investors that 547,000 BTC at the average price of $28,400 could attempt to keep the rally alive.

But if that support level cannot hold, BTC could drop toward $27,000.


In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.



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